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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:31) 4-S.Koch punts 55 yards to PIT 13, Center-46-N.Moore. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 27 for 14 yards (85-E.Tomlinson).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.85 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 68, worth -4.05 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model