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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 11

Baltimore Ravens 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 9

What Actually Happened

(11:54) 9-J.Tucker 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.37 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 22, worth -1.08 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP