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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 17

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(7:29) 9-J.Tucker 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.43 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.21 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model