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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 8

Chicago Bears 14 – Arizona Cardinals 33

What Actually Happened

(2:51) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short right to 17-J.Grant for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN [9-I.Simmons].

The Three Options

GO +2.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.65 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 8, worth -0.40 EP
KICK +1.99 EP
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 21, worth -0.69 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model