Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 5 at the 70

Chicago Bears 14 – Arizona Cardinals 33

(5:55) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 85-C.Kmet to ARI 46 for 24 yards (58-J.Hicks; 34-J.Thompson).

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP

What Happened

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.35 EP
55% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 70, worth -3.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.41 EP