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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 7

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(8:35) 5-M.Prater 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.91 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 7, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 21, worth -0.98 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model