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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 60

Arizona Cardinals 24 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(14:56) 14-A.Lee punts 58 yards to CHI 2, Center-43-B.Brinkley, downed by ARI-45-D.Gardeck.

The Three Options

GO -0.95 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.57 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 60, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 19, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model