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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 17

Chicago Bears 7 – Arizona Cardinals 24

What Actually Happened

(5:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 32-D.Montgomery left guard to ARI 15 for 2 yards (58-J.Hicks, 97-J.Phillips).

The Three Options

GO +3.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.95 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 17, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +2.02 EP
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.24 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -0.84 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model