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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 15

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(9:56) 5-M.Prater 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-B.Brinkley, Holder-14-A.Lee.

The Three Options

GO +1.56 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.28 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.15 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model