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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 7 at the 54

Chicago Bears 7 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 38 yards to ARI 16, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-26-D.Bush.

The Three Options

GO -0.65 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +2.65 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 54, worth -2.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 16, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model