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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 21 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(2:04) 14-A.Lee punts 41 yards to CHI 35, Center-43-B.Brinkley. 17-J.Grant pushed ob at CHI 43 for 8 yards (33-A.Hamilton).

The Three Options

GO -1.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.25 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 76, worth -4.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.75 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 34, worth -1.75 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model