Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 17 at the 82

Chicago Bears 7 – Arizona Cardinals 21

What Actually Happened

(3:36) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 53 yards to ARI 29, Center-48-P.Scales. 4-R.Moore to ARI 47 for 18 yards (45-J.Iyiegbuniwe). PENALTY on ARI-23-R.Alford, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at ARI 29.

The Three Options

GO -2.86 EP

27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.62 EP
73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 82, worth -4.56 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model