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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 8 at the 27

Chicago Bears 0 – Arizona Cardinals 14

What Actually Happened

(11:14) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 17-J.Grant to ARI 16 for 11 yards (58-J.Hicks).

The Three Options

GO +0.82 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.87 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 27, worth -1.09 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 37, worth -1.86 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.46 EP