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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Tennessee Titans
4th & 1 at the 46
Tennessee Titans 0 – New England Patriots 7
What Actually Happened
(3:44) 17-R.Tannehill up the middle to NE 44 for 2 yards (92-D.Godchaux).
The Three Options
GO
+1.00 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.75 EP
- 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 46, worth -2.88 EP
KICK
-1.22 EP
- 38% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
- 62% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -3.02 EP
PUNT
-0.55 EP
- New England Patriots would take over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
