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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 13 – New England Patriots 29

What Actually Happened

(5:31) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 15-N.Westbrook-Ikhine (54-D.Hightower).

The Three Options

GO -2.55 EP
What Happened
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.46 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 79, worth -4.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 36, worth -1.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.01 EP