Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 84

Tennessee Titans 13 – New England Patriots 19

(6:55) 6-B.Kern punts 48 yards to NE 36, Center-46-M.Cox. 80-G.Olszewski to NE 44 for 8 yards (21-M.Farley).

The Three Options

GO -2.37 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.51 EP
52% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 84, worth -5.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model