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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 19 at the 59

New England Patriots 19 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(7:57) 7-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to TEN 11, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 80-C.Rogers.

The Three Options

GO -1.46 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.40 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.10 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model