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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 3 at the 10

New England Patriots 16 – Tennessee Titans 13

What Actually Happened

(11:16) 6-N.Folk 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.75 EP
Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.57 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 10, worth +0.17 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.69 EP