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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 79

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Indianapolis Colts 3

What Actually Happened

(3:35) 8-B.Pinion punts 55 yards to IND 24, Center-97-Z.Triner. 21-N.Hines pushed ob at IND 37 for 13 yards (98-A.Nelson).

The Three Options

GO -2.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.77 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 79, worth -4.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.22 EP
What Happened
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 36, worth -2.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model