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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 6

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Indianapolis Colts 24

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 3-R.Succop 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +2.08 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.76 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 6, worth -0.16 EP
KICK +1.76 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.82 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 21, worth -0.94 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP