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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 6 at the 26

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(12:36) 6-M.Badgley 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-L.Rhodes, Holder-8-R.Sanchez.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.87 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.65 EP
KICK +1.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.62 EP
PUNT +0.17 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model