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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Indianapolis Colts
4th & 1 at the 18
Indianapolis Colts 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7
What Actually Happened
(5:57) 2-C.Wentz up the middle to TB 15 for 3 yards (92-W.Gholston).
The Three Options
GO
+3.21 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.85 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 18, worth -0.44 EP
KICK
+1.87 EP
- 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
- 7% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 28, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT
-0.07 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
