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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Giants 4th & 3 at the 33

New York Giants 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 5-G.Gano 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.92 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 33, worth -1.58 EP
KICK +0.78 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP