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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 8 at the 17

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(6:48) 5-G.Gano 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.54 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.48 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 17, worth -0.23 EP
KICK +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 27, worth -0.57 EP
PUNT +0.36 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model