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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Giants 4th & 1 at the 34

New York Giants 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 0

What Actually Happened

(9:10) (No Huddle) 8-D.Jones left guard to PHI 33 for 1 yard (90-R.Kerrigan, 49-A.Singleton).

The Three Options

GO +2.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +4.02 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 34, worth -1.20 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
  • 70% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 44, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model