4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 27

Philadelphia Eagles 7 – New York Giants 13

What Actually Happened

(:25) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass incomplete deep middle to 18-J.Reagor.

The Three Options

GO +0.86 EP
What Happened
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.98 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 27, worth -0.12 EP
KICK +2.36 EP
Model's Pick
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.89 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 37, worth -0.27 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.50 EP