4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 18 at the 71

New York Giants 13 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(1:19) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to PHI 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor pushed ob at PHI 41 for 9 yards (37-G.Brightwell).

The Three Options

GO -2.09 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +0.49 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 71, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 29, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model