4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 7 at the 21

New York Giants 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 5-G.Gano 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.72 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.02 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model