Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Giants 4th & 9 at the 74

New York Giants 10 – Philadelphia Eagles 7

(14:03) 9-R.Dixon punts 42 yards to PHI 32, Center-58-C.Kreiter. 18-J.Reagor to PHI 35 for 3 yards (95-Q.Roche).

The Three Options

GO -2.11 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.69 EP
64% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 74, worth -4.24 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model