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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 10 at the 59

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Giants 3

What Actually Happened

(10:53) 8-A.Siposs punts 46 yards to NYG 13, Center-45-R.Lovato, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.72 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 59, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 18, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model