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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 16 at the 81

Houston Texans 0 – New York Jets 3

What Actually Happened

(3:38) 11-C.Johnston punts 56 yards to NYJ 25, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.98 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 81, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 38, worth -1.77 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model