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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 2 at the 61

Houston Texans 14 – New York Jets 21

What Actually Happened

(2:10) (Shotgun) 5-T.Taylor pass incomplete short right to 12-N.Collins (37-B.Hall).

The Three Options

GO +0.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.94 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -1.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.40 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model