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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 37

New York Jets 18 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(7:06) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short middle to 88-K.Cole to HOU 24 for 13 yards (51-K.Grugier-Hill).

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.78 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 37, worth -1.75 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.42 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.42 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model