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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 10 at the 37

Houston Texans 14 – New York Jets 18

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 7-K.Fairbairn 55 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-11-C.Johnston.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.18 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 37, worth -1.79 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to make a 54-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.88 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 46, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model