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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 92

New York Jets 18 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(11:33) 7-B.Mann punts 29 yards to NYJ 37, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.29 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.88 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 92, worth -5.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (109 yards).

PUNT -2.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 50, worth -2.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model