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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 3 at the 61

Houston Texans 14 – New York Jets 18

What Actually Happened

(12:20) 11-C.Johnston punts 50 yards to NYJ 11, Center-46-J.Weeks, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 20, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model