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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 24

New York Jets 18 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(13:31) 6-M.Ammendola 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-7-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.29 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.70 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 24, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 34, worth -1.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model