Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 58

Houston Texans 14 – New York Jets 11

(:16) 11-C.Johnston punts 32 yards to NYJ 26, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by HOU. Punt tipped by 83 K.Yeboah

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +1.09 EP
58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -1.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model