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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 3 at the 68

New York Jets 3 – Houston Texans 14

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 7-B.Mann punts 44 yards to HOU 24, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 25-D.King to HOU 31 for 7 yards (86-R.Griffin).

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.51 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 68, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.40 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 26, worth -1.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP