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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 8 at the 38

Minnesota Vikings 26 – San Francisco 49ers 34

What Actually Happened

(:50) (Shotgun) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Jefferson.

The Three Options

GO +0.68 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.41 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 38, worth -0.31 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.82 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 47, worth -0.35 EP
PUNT -0.06 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.83 EP