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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 3 at the 3

Minnesota Vikings 26 – San Francisco 49ers 34

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 8-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Jefferson [56-S.Ebukam].

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.38 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 3, worth -0.27 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 20-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.76 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model