Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 14 at the 67

San Francisco 49ers 31 – Minnesota Vikings 26

(1:46) 18-M.Wishnowsky punts 67 yards to end zone, Center-46-T.Pepper, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.73 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.66 EP
69% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 67, worth -3.72 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model