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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 9 at the 28

San Francisco 49ers 28 – Minnesota Vikings 20

What Actually Happened

(5:03) 9-R.Gould 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Pepper, Holder-18-M.Wishnowsky.

The Three Options

GO +1.03 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.87 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 28, worth -0.89 EP
KICK +1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.18 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 38, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model