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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 74

Minnesota Vikings 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 3-J.Berry punts 45 yards to SF 29, Center-42-A.DePaola, fair catch by 11-B.Aiyuk.

The Three Options

GO -2.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.12 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.64 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -2.12 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 32, worth -2.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model