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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 1 at the 71

Los Angeles Rams 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(:27) 27-D.Henderson left tackle to LA 29 for no gain (31-A.Amos).

The Three Options

GO -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.23 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model