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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 38

Green Bay Packers 0 – Los Angeles Rams 0

What Actually Happened

(4:30) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 23 yards to LA 15, Center-46-S.Wirtel, fair catch by 10-C.Kupp.

The Three Options

GO +0.17 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.40 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 38, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.10 EP
  • 54% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 46% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 47, worth -2.59 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP