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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 24

Green Bay Packers 36 – Los Angeles Rams 25

What Actually Happened

(3:09) 2-M.Crosby 42 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-46-S.Wirtel, Holder-7-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.35 EP
  • 47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.64 EP
  • 53% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 24, worth -1.71 EP
KICK +0.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 41-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +0.88 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 34, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -1.16 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth -1.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model