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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 11 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 36 – Los Angeles Rams 25

What Actually Happened

(7:43) 7-C.Bojorquez punts 34 yards to LA 20, Center-46-S.Wirtel, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.86 EP
Model's Pick
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +2.83 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 54, worth -2.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 16, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model