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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Rams 4th & 10 at the 75

Los Angeles Rams 17 – Green Bay Packers 27

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 6-J.Hekker punts 41 yards to GB 34, Center-42-M.Orzech, downed by LA-31-R.Rochell.

The Three Options

GO -2.39 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.14 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.80 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model