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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 21

Green Bay Packers 20 – Los Angeles Rams 17

What Actually Happened

(8:41) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 81-J.Deguara to LA 9 for 12 yards (51-T.Reeder).

The Three Options

GO +2.77 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.94 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 21, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.46 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Los Angeles Rams takes over around their own 31, worth -1.00 EP
PUNT +0.44 EP
  • Los Angeles Rams would take over around their own 11, worth +0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model